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Atlanta the pick in this spot



Phillies starter Aaron Nola has been one of the best pitchers in the National League since bursting onto the scene with an All-Star season in 2018, but his splits are unfavorable for Sunday’s game in Atlanta.

Nola has a career 35-17 record with a 2.90 ERA 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings and he has a lifetime 26-24 road record with 4.07 ERA and 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings.

The Braves have been able to generate a lot of power this season — they have the league’s best home run rate, with 3.8 percent of their at-bats ending in home runs. That jumps to 4.5 percent at home.

The starting pitcher for the Braves, Huascar Ynoa, has hit home runs in each of his past two starts. He is developing as a trustworthy starter, with a 3-1 record and 2.36 ERA overall this season. In three home starts, he has a 2-0 record with a 1.56 ERA and opponents are hitting .148 off him.

The Phillies entered the weekend with a 5-9 record with 3.8 runs per game and a 5.12 ERA on the road (as opposed to a 13-6 home record with 4.5 runs per game and an ERA of 3.56). The Braves are set up for success and a win within the division on Sunday.

The play: Braves, +101.



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